SAR 108.8 billion is the net income analysts expect Saudi Aramco to report for the first quarter of 2026, roughly $29.01 billion, a 13.8% rise year on year and a 56.7% jump from the prior quarter. The forecast comes from AlJazira Capital and was carried by Zawya, which ties the rebound to a March spike in benchmark crude and firmer refining margins after the recent regional conflict pushed oil prices higher. Independent analysts and campaign groups say the same price shock is transferring income to producers while lifting household and business fuel bills. Aramco will publish its Q1 results on May 11, when markets will see whether the estimate and those war-driven price effects appear in the accounts.
Analysts are pencilling in a clear rebound for Aramco in the first quarter of 2026 after a softer 2025. AlJazira Capital put Q1 net income at SAR 108.8 billion, about $29.01 billion, a 13.8% increase on the same period a year earlier and a 56.7% rise on the fourth quarter. The brokerage ties that bounce to a quarter-on-quarter crude price surge and tighter refining margins following the March spike in benchmark crude, a shift flagged during March by reporting and market commentary. Zawya carried AlJazira Capital's projection ahead of the company’s results day.
Who gains, who pays
The immediate beneficiaries of higher crude are oil producers, while households and businesses face higher bills. The Guardian reported that independent analysts and campaign groups have flagged that dynamic, noting that the same price move that boosts upstream receipts shows up as higher fuel and energy costs for consumers. Several governments have responded by cutting fuel taxes to shield households, a measure that reduces public revenue in a number of countries, the reporting found.
One piece of commissioned analysis reported in The Guardian estimated that the conflict lifted oil to an average of about $100 a barrel in March and produced an immediate windfall for the sector. That analysis, conducted by Rystad Energy and Global Witness and cited in The Guardian, calculated that the top 100 oil and gas companies together took in more than $30 million an hour in the first month of the conflict. The same study projected an Aramco-specific war profit of $25.5 billion in 2026 under a $100 average oil price scenario. That projection appears only in The Guardian’s report in our source set.
Earnings, dividends and balance-sheet moves
Aramco's published results in recent years show the volatility the market is now pricing. BreakingNews.ie reported the company made $106.25 billion in net income for 2024, with revenues of $436 billion for the year. For 2025, RTE recorded Aramco's net income at $93.4 billion, below an LSEG consensus of $95.6 billion. RTE also noted that fourth-quarter net profit fell about 20.5% year on year to nearly $17.8 billion as operating costs rose and prices softened.
The flow of cash from Aramco to the state remains large, but its shape has been shifting. The company paid total dividends of $85.5 billion in 2025, down from $124 billion in 2024. RTE recorded that Aramco confirmed a base dividend of $21.1 billion for the fourth quarter plus a $219 million performance-linked payout.
Alongside dividends, Aramco announced its first-ever share buyback programme, up to $3 billion to be executed over 18 months, a move that signals growing focus on returning capital to shareholders beyond the ordinary dividend.
Operational commentary is mixed across the reporting. One industry account reported a return to higher production when markets allowed, recording a third-quarter profit of $28 billion in a period of elevated output and an average realised price near $70.10 per barrel, along with large free cash flow and plans to accelerate gas capacity growth toward 2030. That set of operational details comes from a single industry outlet in our bundle.
At the same time, Aramco has warned the market about logistical risks. RTE reported company statements that inventories were low and quoted CEO Amin H. Nasser calling for shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid wider disruption, warning of "catastrophic consequences" if the strait remained closed, language the company has used in public commentary on supply risks.
Market watchers note some wide differences in how the various numbers have been reported. Zawya's Q1 2026 projection reflects AlJazira Capital's forward-looking estimate rather than a reported outturn.
The Guardian’s windfall analysis rests on modelling by Rystad Energy and Global Witness, and the third-quarter profit and realised-price figures cited in one trade outlet don't appear elsewhere in our set. Those differences in sources help explain why consensus views and single-source projections can diverge ahead of Aramco’s official statement.
Aramco is due to publish its Q1 2026 results on May 11, a release that will confirm whether the SAR 108.8 billion figure estimated by AlJazira Capital, and the wider war-driven price effects flagged in reporting, translate into a quarter of higher net income.
This article was created with AI assistance.
