EU ambassadors approved a €90 billion loan to Ukraine and quietly set up a working group to begin drafting Montenegro’s accession treaty. Montenegro has closed 14 of the 33 accession chapters and wants to be an EU member by 2028, though some of the hardest chapters on justice and home affairs are still open. The treaty drafting will lock in legal and financial transition rules, including time-limited derogations worth millions of euros, and domestic politics in Podgorica could affect the speed of the process.

The EU decision to establish a working group to draft Montenegro’s accession treaty came during a meeting that also green-lit a large loan to Ukraine and a fresh round of sanctions on Russia. That move was framed inside Brussels as largely technical. Still, diplomats say it carries clear political weight.

The working group is meant to translate political agreement into legal text. It will only fully get under way after nearly all accession chapters are closed. For Croatia, a comparable phase took about five months of intense legal work. Much of the treaty text follows standard EU templates. Diplomats who helped draft Croatia’s treaty say roughly 80 to 85 percent of the wording is reusable. The remaining clauses are where the real bargaining happens.

Where Montenegro stands

Montenegro has closed 14 out of 33 accession chapters so far. The government in Podgorica has publicly set a 2028 target for full membership. That's ambitious. Few in Brussels expect every remaining chapter to be wrapped up quickly. The toughest areas include justice, home affairs, food safety and competition policy. Those are also the areas that tend to require deep legal change and longer implementation times.

When the working group meets, its job will be to set the detailed transition periods and any temporary exceptions. These aren't small matters. They can decide when specific EU rules start to apply, and whether a new member gets time-limited derogations in fields such as agriculture, phytosanitary controls, freedom of movement and property purchase rights. Officials say those arrangements can involve sums that run into millions of euros.

Financial and legal stakes

The accession treaty is the instrument that turns political agreement into binding obligations. It sets the timetable for implementing EU law and can include financial clauses. Those clauses cover, for example, access to EU funds and the phasing of regulatory duties.

For a small economy like Montenegro, the timing of those rules matters for investment, tourism and property markets.

For investors, clarity on when EU standards apply is vital. And for citizens, clarity on rights such as the ability to buy property or work freely across the bloc changes life plans. The treaty will therefore shape the near-term allocation of spending and the regulatory burden on firms. It will also determine when Brussels money and programmes become available.

Mastheads

Political fault lines at home

Domestically, Montenegro faces political tensions that could make the accession clock. Some politicians and parts of the electorate display pro-Serbia sentiment. Streets carry Serbian flags and pro-Belgrade slogans in places. Those divisions make EU accession politically sensitive.

Andrej Nikolaidis, a Montenegrin writer, has argued that several ruling parties prefer a dysfunctional state rather than a strong independent one. He says that stance feeds scepticism about full integration with the West. That kind of domestic politics can slow the pace of reforms. Slower reform means delays in closing chapters and in starting treaty-related legal work.

Regional and practical context

Montenegro is a small Adriatic country with a coast that draws tourists. Its population is slightly larger than Malta’s. That helps explain why it would likely get a small group of representatives in the European Parliament. It also helps explain why many treaty clauses will mirror Croatia’s text: many rules are universal for any new member, and size shapes representation and some transitional terms.

Historical experience matters too. When Croatia moved through the final treaty phase, the process required intensive legal sessions. Lawyers and officials met almost daily to fine-tune text in a period that lasted several months. Montenegro can expect a similar push once it closes most chapters.

The treaty will be granular. It will set the start dates for specific obligations. It will list any temporary exceptions and the limits on those exceptions. This will agree how EU law will be transposed into national law. And it will spell out financial arrangements linked to transition measures.

That legal detail will resolve questions that affect budgets and business models. For example, time-limited exceptions on agricultural rules have direct cost implications. Phytosanitary compliance timelines affect exports and imports. Property purchase rules influence real estate prices. Each delay or derogation has a price tag, and the treaty is where those tags get fixed.

For the market, the treaty phase is about certainty. A clear timetable reduces regulatory risk. A fuzzy timetable raises it. If investors expect protracted negotiations, they might hold back on long-term projects. If the treaty provides a short, clear transition path, capital can be deployed with more confidence.

At the same time, political instability can deter foreign investment. If domestic actors oppose full integration or if nationalist narratives gain ground, perceived risk rises. That can push up financing costs for public projects and increase caution among private investors.

Past enlargements show a range. Croatia’s final treaty stage took months of intensive negotiation after most chapters were closed. The working group created for Montenegro will follow a similar rhythm once it convenes regularly. But before that happens, Montenegro needs to close the bulk of its chapters. Six months is likely too short to finish everything, especially for the hardest chapters.

So the practical path is two-step. First, Podgorica must complete the outstanding reforms. Then the working group will convert political agreement into legal text. The legal drafting will be detailed and time-consuming, even if much of the wording is standard.

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Montenegro is aiming to join the EU by 2028; the working group will now fix the detailed transition rules and any time-limited exceptions that determine when EU law and funding start to apply.

This article was created with AI assistance.