UAE residential transactions fell 38% in the second week of March year‑on‑year and transaction values dropped 42%, a rapid swing that underlines how quickly activity can turn when geopolitical risk rises. JLL says its long-term case for the Middle East remains intact, but short-term growth has become uncertain as the conflict with Iran drags on, chief executive Christian Ulbrich told the Property Play podcast.

Immediate shock to activity Christian Ulbrich, chief executive of JLL, said the firm has moved from expecting a short-lived disruption to facing a more uncertain period as the conflict with Iran drags on. He told the Property Play podcast that early in the crisis he was not "overly concerned" about interest rates because he expected the conflict to end quickly. "If it doesn't," he added, "we have a different situation." JLL has a large operating footprint across the Gulf, including managing and leasing buildings in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and operating in Riyadh, and it also provides project and investment management for large infrastructure and development programmes. That exposure is why Ulbrich said his first priority has been the safety and welfare of staff in the region. Market data have already started to show the immediate impact. A recent report from Goldman Sachs analysts found residential real estate transactions in the UAE were down 38% in the second week of March compared with the same period in 2025, while the value of those transactions fell 42% over the same week. Those figures underline how fast sentiment and activity can swing in the region when geopolitical risks rise. Structural drivers remain JLL's regional business isn't built only on the short-term flow of transactions. Long-term public investment plans, urban expansion and rising demand for specialised infrastructure are central parts of the firm's work in the Gulf. Ulbrich said the region had been on a strong growth trajectory before the conflict and that the present crisis has interrupted that momentum for now. JLL MENA has identified technology and healthcare as pillars of future demand. Karan Sharma, Director, Healthcare and Life Sciences Consulting – MEA, outlined how telehealth moved from pandemic response to a core element of health systems in the region. He said governments in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are pushing digital strategies that are changing how care is delivered and how buildings and campuses are planned. JLL MENA’s own analysis projects the regional telehealth market to rise sharply: from USD 4.51 billion in 2024 to USD 18.05 billion by 2030. That projection highlights how digitisation could reshape demand for specialised clinical space, remote-monitoring hubs and data‑centres linked to healthcare delivery. What this means for investors - Timing is key: the business impact depends on how long the conflict continues, affecting near-term liquidity versus long-term value creation. - Income-producing assets: strengthened rents in prime locations can support cashflow if assets are held, aided by tourism and corporate expansion. - Transaction risk: cross-border buyer appetite and travel restrictions can sharply reduce transaction volumes, as the Goldman Sachs snapshot illustrates. - Project delivery risk: JLL’s project and investment-management work links it to large-scale public and private construction programmes that face delays or disruption.

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Christian Ulbrich warned: "If it doesn't," he said, "we have a different situation." The immediate test for markets will be next month's transaction and project-delivery data — if those remain weak, the short-term picture for Gulf growth will darken even as JLL keeps its long-term case intact.

This article was created with AI assistance.