Saudi Aramco said first-quarter adjusted net income rose 26% to 126 billion riyals, and chief executive Amin Nasser warned that disruption from the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz could persist into 2027 if trade and shipping are curtailed for more than a few weeks. The company said higher crude and refined-product prices, an average realised crude price of $76.90 a barrel and increased sales volumes helped lift the quarter’s result, which some accounts convert to roughly $33.6 billion while one report put the figure at $32.5 billion. Aramco has rerouted exports through its 7 million bpd East-West Pipeline and via Red Sea loading points as shipments through Hormuz have fallen, with tanker-tracking compiled by Bloomberg showing exports averaged about 3.6 million barrels per day in March and just under 4 million bpd in April. The International Energy Agency noted a record monthly gain for Brent in March, and the IMF warned that energy disruption is a downside risk to global growth.

Saudi Arabia’s oil champion reported a 26% rise in adjusted profit for the three months to the end of March, with Aramco putting the figure at 126 billion riyals. The company said the uplift came from higher prices for crude and refined products, and from selling larger volumes of crude, refined fuels and chemical products than a year earlier. Aramco reported an average realised crude price of $76.90 a barrel for the quarter.

Results and the numbers behind them

The riyal-denominated profit figure has led to slightly different dollar conversions across coverage. Some sources translate 126 billion riyals to roughly $33.6 billion for the quarter, while one report recorded net income of $32.5 billion for the quarter ended March 31. Aramco maintained its dividend payout, a fiscal anchor for Saudi public finances, even as it warned the broader energy system "remains constrained" and urged more investment in resilience.

The company held an analyst call on Monday around the results, according to several reports. On that call, and in its public statements, Aramco set out operational details of how it has adapted since late February when hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced shipments through that waterway.

Rerouting, pipeline capacity and market pressure

With shipments through the Strait of Hormuz curtailed, Aramco said it redirected exports through the 7 million barrels per day East-West Pipeline and used alternative loading points on the Red Sea such as Yanbu. The company said the East-West Pipeline has been critical in offsetting constraints and has reached maximum capacity as Saudi Arabia redirected shipments.

Mastheads

Tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and cited in multiple reports show observable exports averaged about 3.6 million barrels per day in March and rose to just under 4 million bpd in April as pipeline flows ramped up. Reports also say some shipments have been loaded at alternative Red Sea ports, though those volumes remain below prewar levels.

Other reports, citing people familiar with the matter, note that some crude shipments have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent days on vessels with their transponders turned off.

Market-level indicators reflect stress that goes beyond Aramco’s quarterly numbers. Brent crude traded near $100 a barrel in the coverage and, in one account, closed around $101 a barrel, after what the International Energy Agency described in its April report as the largest-ever monthly gain for Brent in March. The IMF warned in April that downside risks dominate the global outlook because of the energy disruption and projected slower global growth in scenarios where the conflict persists.

Commentary and analysis pieces argue that a prolonged or near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would remove a critical artery for a large share of global oil and LNG flows and could create structural distortions in markets, including accelerated drawdowns of storage. That particular estimate stems from a single analysis and isn't presented as a company or agency estimate across the reporting.

Against that backdrop, Aramco told investors it has managed to sell higher volumes of crude, refined fuels and chemical products compared with a year earlier. Still, the company cautioned that normalisation of markets depends on how quickly trade flows resume.

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Nasser gave investors a clear timeline: if disruptions are short-lived, rebalancing will follow within months, but "we anticipate the supply disruption to persist, and the market to normalize only in 2027," he said in emailed comments.

This article was created with AI assistance.