Only 279 ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the war began.
Traffic collapse and the attacks
The numbers clearly show the situation. Ship-tracking firms show 279 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz between 28 February and 12 April. That's a tiny fraction of normal traffic — the waterway once saw roughly 100 ships a day.
Those figures come from LSEG, a financial information group, and Kpler, a maritime intelligence firm, which have been monitoring commercial movements through the narrow Gulf choke point since hostilities began. Their datasets also show that 22 ships were attacked during the same period.
The pattern is clear: shipping has largely stopped. Before the conflict, the strait handled about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments. Now, vessel movements have plunged by more than 95 percent compared with pre-war flows.
That collapse has forced many owners and charterers to delay sailings, reroute cargoes or keep tankers idle rather than risk the passage.
Three vessels were reported to have moved through the strait on Tuesday. The Panama-flagged tanker Peace Gulf transited between the islands of Larak and Hormuz and was bound for Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Two other tankers — the Rich Starry and the Elpis, both subject to US sanctions — also made the passage. Because those ships weren't heading to Iranian ports they weren't covered by a US blockade that took effect this week, according to ship-tracking data.
New rules at sea and the US blockade
The rules for navigating the strait have changed quickly. On 2 March, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the strait was "closed" and warned that if vessels tried to cross, the IRGC and the navy would "set those ships ablaze." Jabari also ordered that all ships follow a new route: enter the strait north of Larak Island and exit south of it, on a map the IRGC issued, citing the risk of anti-ship mines in the main traffic lanes.
At the same time, the US Central Command, known as CENTCOM, announced the start of a naval blockade on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. CENTCOM said its forces began enforcing the blockade at 10:00 Eastern Time (14:00 GMT) on Monday, in line with a presidential order. In a statement, CENTCOM said the blockade applies to "vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman."
Those competing instructions — Iran telling ships to use an alternate corridor inside its territorial waters, and the US warning of a blockade on traffic to and from Iran — have left commercial operators with a legal and operational dilemma. Many shipowners refuse to risk either route for fear of legal penalties, seizure or attack.
Why the numbers matter
The Strait of Hormuz is a key maritime chokepoint that often forces large-scale rerouting of oil and gas shipments. Even a modest, sustained drop in daily transits can push up insurance premiums, raise freight rates and make certain chartering routes uneconomic. Those knock-on costs don't just sit on paper — they feed through into refiners' decisions, trading desks' pricing and, eventually, pump prices for consumers.
Shipping insurance has already surged after the attacks and the declaration of restricted zones. Underwriters apply war-risk premiums when vessels enter contested waters, and many insurers are narrowing cover or excluding certain types of claim altogether. When insurance costs rise, shipowners often pass them on through higher freight rates or by charging a risk surcharge to charterers.
At the same time, physical constraints are tightening. Tankers that once moved routine crude cargoes are now waiting for clear instructions or licences. Some cargoes are being diverted via longer routes, including around the Arabian Peninsula, which adds days at sea and extra fuel burn. That means higher costs for shippers and less predictability for refiners that rely on timely deliveries.
How Ireland could be affected
Many Irish readers will want to know: what does this mean for Ireland? The country doesn't import oil through the Strait of Hormuz directly, but Ireland sits inside an interconnected European energy market. Fluctuations in wholesale oil and refined-product prices on global markets quickly influence European pump prices and heating fuel costs.
Higher insurance and freight costs get passed along. That raises the price for imported diesel and petrol at refineries and, after taxes and margins, at Irish forecourts. Ireland's small market means it relies on commercial links and price parity with the wider EU; if global shipping costs push Mediterranean and North Sea refined supplies higher, Irish consumers will feel it at the pumps.
There are also political implications. The EU and its member states have to weigh the risks to commercial freedom of navigation against diplomatic and security concerns. European flagged vessels and companies operating shipping services will make their own risk assessments; some may avoid the area, reducing available tonnage and raising freight costs for routes that still operate. That could hurt Irish firms that rely on competitive freight for imports and exports.
Energy traders and utilities in Europe, including Ireland, may respond by securing future supplies or changing their sources. That can blunt immediate price spikes, but it tends to raise hedging costs, which are ultimately borne by consumers and businesses.
Political fallout and diplomatic tightrope
Politically, the standoff over Hormuz complicates diplomacy in a region already full of rivals.
Tehran has warned it could hit ports in neighbouring Gulf countries if the blockade continues. Washington has presented the blockade as an enforcement of a presidential directive, and has framed the measures as aimed at cutting Tehran's maritime access. Both sides are under domestic pressure to show strength.
For European states, including Ireland's EU partners, the calculus is delicate. They have to keep trade flowing and energy markets stable without being drawn into direct confrontation. That will likely mean more coordination in maritime advisories and possibly an extra push for diplomatic channels to reduce the risk of further attacks.
Ship-tracking data will remain a key source of situational awareness. LSEG and Kpler will keep publishing movements, and governments will base advisories and sanctions enforcement on those datasets. For owners and charterers, those feeds are now part of everyday risk management.
One striking detail: although a ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect on 8 April, ship numbers haven't bounced back. Ship owners are still cautious and many seafarers and insurers remain uneasy about returning to former routes.
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CENTCOM said the blockade began at 10:00 Eastern Time (14:00 GMT).
This article was created with AI assistance.
